If a guy — let’s call him Coco — has ALREADY made the play to end the top of the inning, the odds are indeed 1 in 9 that Coco’s leading off the bottom of the inning, which is good, because he’s starting to heat up at the plate. But now I’m going to get both annoying and confusing.

But you might think that, if Coco’s standing in center with two outs, the odds of the next ball being hit to him AND him leading off the bottom of the frame are 1 in 9 squared, or 1 in 81. I was going to post that … but then I started thinking, we already KNOW who’s leading off the bottom half, right? It is a known quantity, not a 1 in 9 chance. So reverse your thinking: the best way to see the problem would be, what are the odds that whoever’s leading off the bottom half will make the inning-ending play to end the top half?

For example, if Drew’s leading off the bottom half, there’s a 1 in 9 chance of the final out of the top half heading his way, right? And if Youk’s leading off the home half, there’s a 1 in 9 chance of the ball being hit to HIM, right?

Well, no. It’s never EXACTLY 1 in 9. That’s because you have to factor in strikeouts, and also the fact that not every position has equal odds at fielding the next batted ball. I’m sure the shortstop gets more chances than the catcher, and the pitcher’s hardly ever allowed to field anything in the air. And these odds change depending on the type of pitcher (sinkerballers get more grounders) and the type of hitter he’s facing (Papi doesn’t fly out to left very often).

Or we could just say 1 in 9 and go the hell to bed.

I miss you too. We have full minor leagues now, by the way.